This paper summarizes central themes and provides illustrative examples from Milliman’s GLP-1 Impact Dashboard suite of analytics to facilitate the strategic management of GLP-1-related care. These medications significantly affect insurance costs, with Harvard Medical School's Luca Maini estimating that about 30% of this year's premium increases are attributable to GLP-1 medications. This shift is a critical factor for both insurers and policyholders. By synthesizing current research, survey responses from carriers, and early market data, this whitepaper aims to provide a clearer understanding of how GLP-1 therapies may influence medical trends, underwriting, and claim severity in both the near and long term. One of the main culprits of that higher spending: prescription drugs, and GLP-1s in particular. Some insurers spent more on drugs in the first nine months of this year than they did in all of. Even as evidence accumulates about the efficacy of GLP-1 drugs, concerns surrounding insurance coverage of the products remain unresolved. Both employers and insurers are trying to navigate the dichotomy between clinical benefits and potentially burdensome costs. Prime Therapeutics conducted a real-world cost-effectiveness assessment of GLP-1 medications for treating obesity without diabetes, aiming to evaluate their financial impact and clinical benefits using claims data for commercially insured individuals between 2020-2022. The global GLP-1 receptor agonist market is valued at approximately USD 53.46 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.46% from 2025 to 2030. At current prices, some analyses show that GLP-1s may not be as cost effective as certain surgical alternatives. For example, bariatric surgery may be a lower-cost and lasting treatment option for obesity. And the newly launched TrumpRX platform offers some GLP-1 discounts aimed at those who lack insurance or would pay more under their coverage. The drugs’ popularity and price are already driving up the cost of health insurance across the board, says Luca Maini, assistant professor of health care policy at Harvard Medical School. Our simulation results demonstrate that the impact of GLP-1 drug coverage on health insurance premiums is highly sensitive to a combination of factors, including drug prices, adherence levels, cost-sharing design, and eligibility criteria.
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